Who has the edge in this Saturday night showdown? My Lean on the game
Chargers
The chargers come in off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Raiders. They finally fired coach Brandon Staley which has been needed since last year in my opinion.
Historically a team coming off of a blowout loss and firing their head coach has done well against the spread. This might be a different case being that the bills are fighting for their playoff lives.
Offensively the chargers lost QB Justin Herbert and last week the offense looked pretty bad with Easton stick at the helm. Defensively they didn’t look any better allowing 60 points to Aiden occonell the chargers do rank a horrible 28th in defensive DVOA so they showed their colors.
Bills
The bills are coming in scorching hot after running all over the cowboys and demolishing them in Buffalo last week. Every week matters to bufffalo to get into the playoffs they still have a showdown with the Dolphins and that could possibly be for a division lead believe it or not.
The Bills rank very high in offensive DVOA #2 and Defensively #9. This is a clear mismatch which is probably why the line is what it is in this game. I think the Bills are a good team who is undervalued this year because they had some injured earlier in the year.
The line sits at Bills -12.5 and the total at 44. Im not of fan of taking favorites over 10 points because of the dreaded back door on the road but I do have a lean on this game below.
My lean: 1st half Bills -7
