The "run line" bet is similar to a spread in other sports but calculated based off runs.
For example, if you want to play the Dodgers at -1.5 that means the Dodgers must win by 2 runs or more, if not, you will lose your bet.
You can also take for example the Royals +1.5. Meaning, if the Royals win, you win. They can even lose by 1 run and you still cash your play.
On average in the MLB, roughly 28% of games end in a one run ball game. That means about 1 out of every 4 games. It’s a good measuring stick when you are debating on whether you should take the game on the money line or the run line. I like using this statistic when it comes to lines that are juiced high at -180 or above. Even at lines priced at -140 or -150 for favorites.
The way I look at it, why would I risk -200 when I can take the run line and get better odds at around even knowing that the odds are in my favor when it comes to a game landing on exactly a “1” run margin. If the game were to lose I save myself some juice and bankroll.
If the game were to win I win the same amount that I would have won without risking as much upfront. When you take a -1.5 and you’re getting +140 or +150 odds now they’re working in your favor as well because you will be getting a value on the run line you have over a 70% chance of cashing in at way better odds when you think about it if you think the team at then-1.5 will win the game.
On the contrary some people like to take underdogs at the +1.5 that means they’re getting a run and a half. The problem with some of these is you’re paying -150 or more at times and those same statistics still apply. You’re paying more with less than a 70% chance of it landing in your favor if the team you selected doesn’t end up winning or covering. In this case those underdogs teams will pay better if you just take them straight up. Look at it as if you’re paying for insurance but insurance thats less than a 30% chance for you.
When you look at it that way sometimes it may be worth it taking the run line instead or sometimes it may be worth it just taking an underdog straight up. There are exceptions I make of course if I feel the underdog can win and I’m only playing -130 or less on the +1.5 run line as well.
It all depends on how you look at the angle and the game but the most important thing is to always use your bankroll wisely. I hate when one loss puts me back 2-3 games/ wins makes it that much harder to win long term.
